2018 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

17·20

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.009EPA / play-0.073
  • 43.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.096
  • 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.03CPOE-3.01
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.44
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:32647Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 10:19514Turnover0–7
WASQ1 7:21413Punt0–7
DALQ1 5:51732Punt0–7
WASQ1 1:11633Punt0–7
DALQ2 11:42929Punt0–7
WASQ2 6:27513Punt0–7
DALQ2 3:46683Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 1:00826Turnover on downs7–7
WASQ3 15:00972Field goal7–10
DALQ3 9:1036Punt7–10
WASQ3 7:34520Punt7–10
DALQ3 4:063-2Punt7–10
WASQ3 2:23854Field goal7–13
DALQ4 12:35546Field goal10–13
WASQ4 9:46620Punt10–13
DALQ4 6:184-3Opp touchdown10–20
DALQ4 4:551479Touchdown17–20
WASQ4 1:3737Punt17–20
DALQ4 1:09635Missed field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3527310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott15332.20
Dak Prescott6335.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup35811
Allen Hurns56740
Cole Beasley78560
Geoff Swaim33250
Blake Jarwin11160
Dalton Schultz13120
Ezekiel Elliott2690
Deonte Thompson0100
Brice Butler0100
Rico Gathers0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith14/2517810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson24994.10
Alex Smith4164.00
Kapri Bibbs2136.50
Samaje Perine221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed24430
Kapri Bibbs45431
Josh Doctson36420
Maurice Harris33220
Michael Floyd13200
Adrian Peterson1280
Jeremy Sprinkle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.71