2018 · Week 7 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play-0.073
- 43.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.051EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.096
- 8.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.03CPOE-3.01
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.2%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.93Points / drive1.44
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/35 | 273 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 81 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 7 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 14/25 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 99 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71