Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play-0.148
- 44.2%Success rate37.3%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.138
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.167
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- -5.32CPOE-3.93
- 41.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.67Points / drive1.07
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 8–6 since 1999
ATL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. ATL are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/39 | 303 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 8 | 12 | 1.5 | 1 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 18/39 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 87 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15