2018 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

18·33

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -8.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.102
  • 42.8%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.112
  • 10.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.95CPOE+1.39
  • 35.9%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.23
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 42–14–1 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.1 points. PIT are 29-26-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4PIT @ CLE24–27CLE
2025 · W17PIT @ CLE6–13CLE
2025 · W6CLE @ PIT9–23PIT
2024 · W14CLE @ PIT14–27PIT
2024 · W12PIT @ CLE19–24CLE
2023 · W11PIT @ CLE10–13CLE
2023 · W2CLE @ PIT22–26PIT
2022 · W18CLE @ PIT14–28PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PIT
CLEQ1 15:001066Field goal3–0
PITQ1 9:10413Punt3–0
CLEQ1 6:5243Punt3–0
PITQ1 6:0434Turnover3–0
CLEQ1 4:54529Field goal6–0
PITQ1 2:343-1Punt6–0
CLEQ1 0:27423Missed field goal6–0
PITQ2 13:29669Touchdown6–7
CLEQ2 11:26831Turnover6–7
PITQ2 7:201886Touchdown6–14
CLEQ2 0:0810End of half6–14
PITQ3 15:00853Turnover6–14
CLEQ3 11:5831Punt6–14
PITQ3 10:33420Punt6–14
CLEQ3 8:5221Safety6–16
PITQ3 8:0700Touchdown6–16
CLEQ3 8:0777Touchdown12–16
PITQ3 5:24575Touchdown12–23
CLEQ3 2:423-4Punt12–23
PITQ3 1:15631Field goal12–26
CLEQ4 13:293-6Punt12–26
PITQ4 11:0032Punt12–26
CLEQ4 9:32411Punt12–26
PITQ4 7:411070Touchdown12–33
CLEQ4 2:04975Touchdown18–33
PITQ4 0:0600End of half18–33

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield22/3618021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb18653.60
Baker Mayfield199.00
Duke Johnson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry812390
Antonio Callaway56361
Seth DeValve22281
Dontrell Hilliard11240
Damion Ratley14210
Duke Johnson23160
Nick Chubb23100
Darren Fells1160
Breshad Perriman0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger24/3625721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner241466.12
Jaylen Samuels4174.30
Ben Roethlisberger263.00
Joshua Dobbs1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown68742
James Conner56660
Vance McDonald33470
JuJu Smith-Schuster46330
Justin Hunter24150
Stevan Ridley22130
Jesse James2390
Ryan Switzer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.19