Closing spread
PIT -8.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.102
- 42.8%Success rate47.5%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.112
- 10.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.95CPOE+1.39
- 35.9%Third-down rate43.9%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 1.75Points / drive2.23
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 42–13–1 since 1999
Meetings average 38.9 points. PIT are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 22/36 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 5 | 6 | 36 | 1 |
| Seth DeValve | 2 | 2 | 28 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 1 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/36 | 257 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 24 | 146 | 6.1 | 2 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 8 | 74 | 2 |
| James Conner | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.19