2018 · Week 8 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

15·18

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+3.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.240
  • 44.8%Success rate35.6%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback-0.267
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.193
  • 11.4%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -2.68CPOE-7.13
  • 37.2%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 1.66Points / drive0.92
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:503-1Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:141129Punt0–0
ARIQ1 5:0433Safety2–0
SFQ1 4:0733Punt2–0
ARIQ1 1:561261Field goal2–3
SFQ2 10:23523Punt2–3
ARIQ2 7:4739Turnover2–3
SFQ2 6:1333Field goal5–3
ARIQ2 4:32829Punt5–3
SFQ2 0:3527End of half5–3
ARIQ3 15:0034Punt5–3
SFQ3 13:2946Punt5–3
ARIQ3 11:37617Punt5–3
SFQ3 7:56670Touchdown12–3
ARIQ3 6:22413Punt12–3
SFQ3 4:471073Field goal15–3
ARIQ4 13:33662Touchdown15–10
SFQ4 11:06828Punt15–10
ARIQ4 6:52546Turnover15–10
SFQ4 4:445-1Punt15–10
ARIQ4 2:161278Touchdown15–18
SFQ4 0:34630End of half15–18

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard14/2819010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida16422.60
Alfred Morris6284.70
Raheem Mostert2189.00
C.J. Beathard591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne710710
George Kittle58570
Marquise Goodwin14551
Trent Taylor1270
Raheem Mostert0100
Dante Pettis0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen23/4025221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson16593.70
Josh Rosen2126.00
Chase Edmonds294.50
J.J. Nelson188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald8121021
Christian Kirk37421
David Johnson44410
Jermaine Gresham33220
Chad Williams22210
Ricky Seals-Jones24120
Chase Edmonds12120
J.J. Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.86
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.85