Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+3.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.240
- 44.8%Success rate35.6%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.267
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.193
- 11.4%Explosive rate6.0%
- -2.68CPOE-7.13
- 37.2%Third-down rate29.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 1.66Points / drive0.92
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 14/28 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 16 | 42 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 7 | 10 | 71 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 55 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 23/40 | 252 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 16 | 59 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Josh Rosen | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8 | 12 | 102 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 3 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.99
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.86
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.85