2018 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Alex Smith

20·13

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

43

Model margin

+2.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.016
  • 42.3%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -3.01CPOE+0.30
  • 36.2%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:00721Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:32520Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:211073Touchdown7–0
NYGQ1 2:53646Punt7–0
WASQ2 14:24630Punt7–0
NYGQ2 11:03858Turnover7–0
WASQ2 6:33828Missed field goal7–0
NYGQ2 3:19851Field goal7–3
WASQ2 1:1636Punt7–3
NYGQ2 0:281-7End of half7–3
NYGQ3 15:00520Punt7–3
WASQ3 11:54634Punt7–3
NYGQ3 8:263-8Punt7–3
WASQ3 7:11615Field goal10–3
NYGQ3 4:513-8Turnover10–3
WASQ3 3:47622Turnover10–3
NYGQ3 0:4347Turnover on downs10–3
WASQ4 14:20652Field goal13–3
NYGQ4 9:53411Punt13–3
WASQ4 7:53610Punt13–3
NYGQ4 5:12733Field goal13–6
WASQ4 4:08370Touchdown20–6
NYGQ4 3:061580Touchdown20–13
WASQ4 0:1700End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith20/3217810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson261495.71
Alex Smith3134.30
Chris Thompson3134.30
Paul Richardson177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Doctson55490
Jordan Reed712380
Paul Richardson25340
Vernon Davis13210
Maurice Harris22200
Chris Thompson2390
Adrian Peterson1171

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning30/4731612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13382.90
Wayne Gallman1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.8111360
Saquon Barkley910730
Bennie Fowler47480
Sterling Shepard48340
Evan Engram59251
Rhett Ellison0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.94