2018 · Week 8 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.016
- 42.3%Success rate39.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- -3.01CPOE+0.30
- 36.2%Third-down rate36.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.44Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/32 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 26 | 149 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doctson | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 12 | 38 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 30/47 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 38 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 8 | 11 | 136 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 9 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 9 | 25 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.94