2018 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

9·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.022EPA / play-0.075
  • 41.5%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.027EPA / dropback-0.011
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.203
  • 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -2.79CPOE+2.40
  • 36.1%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.57
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–18 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET
2022 · W3DET @ MIN24–28MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
MINQ1 15:00964Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 9:53516Punt0–7
MINQ1 7:5437Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:321448Field goal3–7
MINQ2 13:16524Turnover3–7
DETQ2 10:29928Field goal6–7
MINQ2 4:45375Touchdown6–14
DETQ2 3:20619Punt6–14
MINQ2 0:39621Field goal6–17
DETQ2 0:0400End of half6–17
DETQ3 15:003-2Punt6–17
MINQ3 12:58833Punt6–17
DETQ3 7:42514Punt6–17
MINQ3 5:0337Punt6–17
DETQ3 3:32513Punt6–17
MINQ4 15:00949Turnover6–17
DETQ4 10:1364Opp touchdown6–24
DETQ4 6:571669Field goal9–24
MINQ4 1:1133Punt9–24
DETQ4 0:4611End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/3619900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson12373.10
LeGarrette Blount581.60
Kenny Golladay188.00
Matthew Stafford561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones68660
Kenny Golladay34460
Theo Riddick78360
Luke Willson22170
T.J. Jones22130
Michael Roberts14120
Kerryon Johnson3570
LeGarrette Blount1120

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/2216411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook10898.90
Latavius Murray10313.11
Adam Thielen155.00
Kirk Cousins231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laquon Treadwell22370
Kyle Rudolph22280
Adam Thielen47221
Chad Beebe33210
Aldrick Robinson23200
Dalvin Cook44200
Latavius Murray11160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.31