Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.022EPA / play-0.075
- 41.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.027EPA / dropback-0.011
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -2.79CPOE+2.40
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.75Points / drive1.57
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/36 | 199 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 7 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/22 | 164 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 4 | 7 | 22 | 1 |
| Chad Beebe | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.31