Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.111
- 37.1%Success rate40.1%
- -0.087EPA / dropback-0.100
- -0.196EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -5.42CPOE-0.24
- 32.2%Third-down rate30.3%
- 49.6%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
- 1.47Points / drive1.45
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/39 | 229 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Herndon | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Deontay Burnett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Osweiler | 15/24 | 139 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.74
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.91