2018 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

6·13

Dolphins

Miami

QB Brock Osweiler

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.111
  • 37.1%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback-0.100
  • -0.196EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -5.42CPOE-0.24
  • 32.2%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 49.6%Red-zone TD rate65.0%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.45
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:0138Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:52717Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:5738Punt0–0
MIAQ1 4:4747Punt0–0
NYJQ1 2:59440Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 0:54628Field goal0–3
NYJQ2 12:39310Punt0–3
MIAQ2 10:0339Punt0–3
NYJQ2 8:5635Punt0–3
MIAQ2 7:141351Field goal0–6
NYJQ2 1:11645Field goal3–6
MIAQ2 0:2000End of half3–6
NYJQ3 15:00732Punt3–6
MIAQ3 10:51627Punt3–6
NYJQ3 6:3031Punt3–6
MIAQ3 5:193-7Punt3–6
NYJQ3 3:191125Missed field goal3–6
MIAQ4 12:3735Punt3–6
NYJQ4 11:3721Opp touchdown3–13
NYJQ4 10:48947Field goal6–13
MIAQ4 5:5739Punt6–13
NYJQ4 4:21624Turnover6–13
MIAQ4 2:1531Punt6–13
NYJQ4 1:46636Turnover6–13
MIAQ4 0:3300End of half6–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3922904

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell13493.80
Elijah McGuire7304.30
Robbie Chosen111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Herndon44620
Quincy Enunwa34400
Elijah McGuire35370
Robbie Chosen47320
Jermaine Kearse39200
Trenton Cannon11150
Isaiah Crowell12110
Eric Tomlinson1260
Jordan Leggett1260
Deontay Burnett0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Osweiler15/2413900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore20532.60
Kenyan Drake393.00
Brock Osweiler341.30
Kalen Ballage1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola57470
Kenyan Drake46260
Kenny Stills11190
Kalen Ballage22170
Jakeem Grant12160
DeVante Parker1280
Frank Gore1160
Mike Gesicki0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.74
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.91