2018 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·16

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.035
  • 47.5%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.112EPA / rush+0.003
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.39CPOE-3.77
  • 43.9%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 73.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.01
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:00831Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:07642Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:22966Field goal0–3
PITQ1 5:02961Touchdown7–3
BALQ1 1:03516Punt7–3
PITQ2 13:041275Touchdown14–3
BALQ2 7:18625Field goal14–6
PITQ2 4:37819Punt14–6
BALQ2 1:41431Punt14–6
PITQ2 0:49515End of half14–6
PITQ3 15:001675Touchdown20–6
BALQ3 6:461259Touchdown20–13
PITQ3 2:5634Punt20–13
BALQ3 1:2444Punt20–13
PITQ4 14:151289Field goal23–13
BALQ4 8:26937Field goal23–16
PITQ4 5:23915Punt23–16
BALQ4 0:444-3Turnover on downs23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4727020
Joshua Dobbs1/12200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner241074.50
Ben Roethlisberger242.01
Jaylen Samuels122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster79780
James Conner79561
Jesse James23530
Antonio Brown510421
Vance McDonald36250
Ryan Switzer34210
James Washington25170

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco23/3720600
Lamar Jackson1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins9353.91
Gus Edwards11010.00
Lamar Jackson5102.00
Javorius Allen166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead78580
Mark Andrews36500
Michael Crabtree37320
Chris Moore11300
Hayden Hurst12210
John Brown36150
Javorius Allen5580
Alex Collins1140
Lamar Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85