Closing spread
BAL -1.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.035
- 47.5%Success rate45.8%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.112EPA / rush+0.003
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.39CPOE-3.77
- 43.9%Third-down rate45.4%
- 73.7%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 2.23Points / drive2.01
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/47 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1/1 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| James Conner | 7 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 42 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| James Washington | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 23/37 | 206 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 7 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| John Brown | 3 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85