Closing spread
LAC -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+0.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. OAK are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 18/26 | 223 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.