Closing spread
LAC -10.5
Total
50
Model margin
+0.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJoey BosaDEFoot· DNP
- QuestionableChris LandrumDEHip· Limited
- QuestionableDarius PhilonDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableKyle EmanuelLBHip· DNP
- QuestionableTrevor WilliamsCBKnee· DNP
Raiders
- LimitedDaryl WorleyCBShoulder
- LimitedDoug MartinRBHip
- LimitedJon FelicianoGRibs
- LimitedKelechi OsemeleGKnee
- LimitedKolton MillerTKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LAC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 80 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:25 | 7 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 2:51 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:43 | 9 | 38 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:10 | 10 | 26 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 5:47 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 3:33 | 8 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:24 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 12:32 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q3 8:58 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 7:25 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q3 5:44 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 2:53 | 8 | 69 | Field goal | 17–6 |
| LAC | Q4 14:49 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| LV | Q4 7:12 | 9 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 20–6 |
| LAC | Q4 4:10 | 7 | 40 | Punt | 20–6 |
| LV | Q4 1:07 | 5 | 14 | End of half | 20–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 18/26 | 223 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 93 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 5 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.41
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.