2018 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

21·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.6%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.003
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -3.54CPOE-3.77
  • 36.9%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.01
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:541166Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:31515Punt0–7
BALQ1 5:29516Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:0333Punt0–7
BALQ1 2:0033Punt0–7
CINQ1 0:03756Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 12:571146Punt7–7
CINQ2 6:4134Punt7–7
BALQ2 5:02744Field goal7–10
CINQ2 1:46619Punt7–10
BALQ2 0:22327Field goal7–13
BALQ3 15:00321Turnover7–13
CINQ3 13:36432Touchdown14–13
BALQ3 11:46636Turnover on downs14–13
CINQ3 9:15745Touchdown21–13
BALQ3 5:451080Touchdown21–21
CINQ3 1:033-2Punt21–21
BALQ3 0:081258Field goal21–24
CINQ4 8:12947Missed field goal21–24
BALQ4 3:5949Punt21–24
CINQ4 2:45527Turnover on downs21–24
BALQ4 1:4200End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton19/3621120
Tyler Boyd0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andy Dalton22914.50
Joe Mixon12141.21
Giovani Bernard252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd411710
C.J. Uzomah35410
Joe Mixon33380
John Ross27271
Giovani Bernard44200
Jordan Franks1150
Auden Tate1150
Matt Lengel1141
Alex Erickson0100
Cody Core0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson13/1915001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson261194.60
Gus Edwards171156.81
Alex Collins7182.61
Chris Moore188.00
Javorius Allen122.00
John Brown100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead58510
Nick Boyle44360
John Brown11230
Mark Andrews11190
Chris Moore11140
Michael Crabtree1370

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.35
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.65