Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.035
- 43.6%Success rate45.8%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.003
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.8%
- -3.54CPOE-3.77
- 36.9%Third-down rate45.4%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.95Points / drive2.01
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 19/36 | 211 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 14 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 7 | 27 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Franks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/19 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 26 | 119 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.65