Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.013
- 42.8%Success rate43.6%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.091EPA / rush-0.105
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.95CPOE-3.54
- 35.9%Third-down rate36.9%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.75Points / drive1.95
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/26 | 258 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 28 | 84 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Antonio Callaway | 4 | 5 | 62 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 17/29 | 155 | 1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 10/17 | 100 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 89 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 8 | 85 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 7 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 6 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| John Ross | 3 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Auden Tate | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Matt Lengel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.52