2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

35·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.009EPA / play+0.013
  • 42.8%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.091EPA / rush-0.105
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -0.95CPOE-3.54
  • 35.9%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.75Points / drive1.95
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:001078Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 9:111163Missed field goal7–0
CLEQ1 3:01551Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 1:3747Punt14–0
CLEQ1 0:051296Touchdown21–0
CINQ2 9:1820Turnover21–0
CLEQ2 9:091259Touchdown28–0
CINQ2 2:251082Touchdown28–7
CLEQ2 0:32312End of half28–7
CINQ3 15:00319Turnover28–7
CLEQ3 13:4127Touchdown35–7
CINQ3 12:5633Punt35–7
CLEQ3 12:133-1Punt35–7
CINQ3 10:351065Touchdown35–14
CLEQ3 4:56810Punt35–14
CINQ4 14:511574Touchdown35–20
CLEQ4 7:5737Punt35–20
CINQ4 6:121159Turnover on downs35–20
CLEQ4 3:09424Punt35–20
CINQ4 1:4750Turnover on downs35–20
CLEQ4 1:1300End of half35–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield19/2625840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb28843.01
Duke Johnson2168.00
Baker Mayfield4-4-1.00
Breshad Perriman1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku55631
Antonio Callaway45621
Nick Chubb33441
Jarvis Landry35300
Rashard Higgins13240
Duke Johnson12230
Darren Fells1161
Breshad Perriman1160

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel17/2915510
Andy Dalton10/1710011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14896.40
Andy Dalton22110.50
Giovani Bernard11010.00
Jeff Driskel393.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd78851
Joe Mixon77660
C.J. Uzomah612390
John Ross37311
Auden Tate27150
Giovani Bernard11120
Cody Core1270
Matt Lengel0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.52