2018 · Week 12 · Division
Final
AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf
Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
40
Model margin
+3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play+0.009
- 42.3%Success rate43.9%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.01CPOE+1.03
- 36.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.44Points / drive1.93
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 24/38 | 268 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 6 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 5 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Kapri Bibbs | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/31 | 289 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 26 | 121 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 9 | 180 | 2 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.53