2018 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

23·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

40

Model margin

+3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.073EPA / play+0.009
  • 42.3%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.060
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.01CPOE+1.03
  • 36.2%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.93
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:0234Punt0–7
DALQ1 8:28314Punt0–7
WASQ1 6:52936Turnover0–7
DALQ1 2:54513Punt0–7
WASQ2 14:51839Punt0–7
DALQ2 9:3338Punt6–7
WASQ2 7:12153Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 7:041365Field goal7–10
WASQ2 1:283-5Punt7–10
DALQ2 1:0247Punt7–10
WASQ2 0:1500End of half7–10
WASQ3 15:0068Punt7–10
DALQ3 12:0631Punt7–10
WASQ3 10:31430Touchdown13–10
DALQ3 9:02675Touchdown13–17
WASQ3 6:47642Punt13–17
DALQ3 3:05291Touchdown13–24
WASQ3 2:1029Turnover13–24
DALQ3 1:31517Touchdown13–31
WASQ4 14:11644Touchdown20–31
DALQ4 11:431140Turnover on downs20–31
WASQ4 5:27431Turnover20–31
DALQ4 4:1830Punt20–31
WASQ4 3:501041Field goal23–31
DALQ4 1:1300End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy24/3826823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson12352.90
Colt McCoy5285.60
Kapri Bibbs3175.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Reed68750
Vernon Davis24731
Josh Doctson610660
Trey Quinn56261
Kapri Bibbs33190
Adrian Peterson2290
Maurice Harris0500

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3128920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott261214.71
Dak Prescott6183.01
Rod Smith273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper891802
Blake Jarwin22250
Ezekiel Elliott56220
Noah Brown12220
Michael Gallup26190
Jamize Olawale11100
Allen Hurns1170
Cole Beasley1350
Dalton Schultz11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.53