2018 · Week 13 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

16·43

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.093
  • 44.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.027
  • 11.4%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -2.68CPOE+7.30
  • 37.2%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.23
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:0067Punt0–0
SEAQ1 10:3739Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:50623Punt0–0
SEAQ1 5:48779Touchdown0–6
SFQ1 1:25311Punt0–6
SEAQ2 14:53367Touchdown0–13
SFQ2 13:41858Turnover0–13
SEAQ2 9:31617Punt0–13
SFQ2 6:30414Punt0–13
SEAQ2 4:1249Punt0–13
SEAQ2 1:51611Touchdown0–20
SFQ2 1:17435Field goal3–20
SEAQ3 15:00120Touchdown3–27
SFQ3 14:44763Touchdown10–27
SEAQ3 11:24620Punt10–27
SFQ3 7:28846Punt10–27
SEAQ3 2:40940Touchdown10–34
SFQ4 14:17175Touchdown16–34
SEAQ4 14:061260Field goal16–37
SFQ4 7:46970Opp touchdown16–43
SFQ4 4:041750Turnover on downs16–43
SEAQ4 0:1700End of half16–43

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens30/4841421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Wilson15614.10
Matt Breida561.20
Nick Mullens210.50
Dante Pettis1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Pettis571292
Jeff Wilson89730
George Kittle69700
Kendrick Bourne47600
Matt Breida33510
Trent Taylor12110
Richie James0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson11/1718540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson13695.30
Rashaad Penny7659.31
Russell Wilson4143.50
Mike Davis4102.50
Tyler Lockett11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaron Brown33672
Tyler Lockett12521
Chris Carson34390
Doug Baldwin24221
Nick Vannett1140
Malik Turner1110
J.D. McKissic0100
David Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.13