Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.093
- 44.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.027
- 11.4%Explosive rate11.2%
- -2.68CPOE+7.30
- 37.2%Third-down rate38.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 1.66Points / drive2.23
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 30/48 | 414 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Wilson | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 7 | 129 | 2 |
| Jeff Wilson | 8 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 9 | 70 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Richie James | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11/17 | 185 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 67 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.13