Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.029
- 40.4%Success rate42.6%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.094
- 7.4%Explosive rate9.3%
- -4.63CPOE+1.50
- 40.5%Third-down rate40.0%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.26Points / drive1.83
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 25/43 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 36 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Cody Kessler | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Keelan Cole | 3 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 5 | 10 | 47 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Rashad Greene | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 18/24 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 238 | 14.0 | 4 |
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 13 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taywan Taylor | 6 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87