2018 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

40·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Sanchez

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.016EPA / play-0.073
  • 39.9%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback-0.059
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.096
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.30CPOE-3.01
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.44
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
WASQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:4930Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:1633Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:2234Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:24515Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:3959Punt0–0
WASQ1 3:172-1Opp touchdown7–0
WASQ1 2:4534Punt7–0
NYGQ1 0:07848Field goal10–0
WASQ2 10:3833Punt16–0
NYGQ2 8:54178Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 8:4238Turnover17–0
NYGQ2 7:42310Touchdown24–0
WASQ2 6:2138Punt24–0
NYGQ2 4:20682Touchdown31–0
WASQ2 1:483-3Punt31–0
NYGQ2 0:56553Field goal34–0
NYGQ3 15:0031Punt34–0
WASQ3 13:283-7Punt34–0
NYGQ3 11:18981Touchdown40–0
WASQ3 5:381150Turnover on downs40–0
NYGQ4 15:0030Turnover40–0
WASQ4 14:01520Touchdown40–8
NYGQ4 11:5635Punt40–8
WASQ4 10:23392Touchdown40–16
NYGQ4 8:4835Punt40–16
WASQ4 7:10882Turnover40–16
NYGQ4 4:24828End of half40–16

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2219730
Kyle Lauletta0/5001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley1417012.11
Wayne Gallman14382.70
Kyle Lauletta1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram35770
Corey Coleman22430
Saquon Barkley45270
Sterling Shepard26171
Russell Shepard14111
Bennie Fowler1161
Wayne Gallman0200

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson11/1619511
Mark Sanchez6/143802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Johnson7456.41
Chris Thompson3237.70
Adrian Peterson10161.60
Byron Marshall144.00
Jehu Chesson1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder27871
Josh Doctson45840
Vernon Davis44310
Chris Thompson35150
Byron Marshall33130
Adrian Peterson1130
Michael Floyd0200
Jordan Reed0100
Maurice Harris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.17
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.79