2018 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play-0.073
- 39.9%Success rate42.3%
- +0.054EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.096
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.30CPOE-3.01
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.2%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.89Points / drive1.44
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/22 | 197 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Lauletta | 0/5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 170 | 12.1 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kyle Lauletta | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 3 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Corey Coleman | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Russell Shepard | 1 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 11/16 | 195 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 6/14 | 38 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jehu Chesson | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 2 | 7 | 87 | 1 |
| Josh Doctson | 4 | 5 | 84 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Byron Marshall | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.17
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.79