Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-1.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.019
- 44.2%Success rate44.8%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.135
- 11.2%Explosive rate11.4%
- +7.30CPOE-2.68
- 38.7%Third-down rate37.2%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.23Points / drive1.66
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/31 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 22 | 119 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 6 | 77 | 2 |
| Mike Davis | 8 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 20/29 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.57