2018 · Week 15 · Division

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·26

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

-1.6est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.093EPA / play-0.019
  • 44.2%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.208EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.135
  • 11.2%Explosive rate11.4%
  • +7.30CPOE-2.68
  • 38.7%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.23Points / drive1.66
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:32959Touchdown6–6
SFQ1 9:2700Touchdown6–7
SEAQ1 9:15736Punt6–7
SFQ1 4:39554Turnover6–7
SEAQ1 2:39629Punt6–7
SFQ2 14:511096Touchdown6–14
SEAQ2 9:29879Touchdown13–14
SFQ2 5:19861Field goal13–17
SEAQ2 1:05413Punt13–17
SFQ2 0:0200End of half13–17
SEAQ3 15:0031Punt13–17
SFQ3 12:49420Punt13–17
SEAQ3 10:50611Punt13–17
SFQ3 6:48741Field goal13–20
SEAQ3 2:541075Touchdown20–20
SFQ4 13:51845Field goal20–23
SEAQ4 9:51840Field goal23–23
SFQ4 5:2130Punt23–23
SEAQ4 4:2146Punt23–23
SFQ4 2:375-1Punt23–23
SEAQ4 1:38622Punt23–23
SFQ4 0:1100End of half23–23
SEAOT414Punt23–23
SFOT729Field goal23–26

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3123720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson221195.41
Mike Davis5214.20
Russell Wilson5153.00
Tyler Lockett11111.00
J.D. McKissic221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin46772
Mike Davis88630
Tyler Lockett22450
Chris Carson66290
Ed Dickson22140
David Moore1390
Nick Vannett0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens20/2927510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida17502.90
Jeff Wilson7466.60
Nick Mullens2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dante Pettis55830
Garrett Celek22611
George Kittle38510
Matt Breida55460
Kendrick Bourne24160
Trent Taylor1280
Marquise Goodwin1170
Jeff Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.57