Closing spread
CLE -10
Total
44
Model margin
+5.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play-0.009
- 43.6%Success rate42.8%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.091
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -3.54CPOE-0.95
- 36.9%Third-down rate35.9%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.95Points / drive1.75
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 13/19 | 133 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Cody Core | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/37 | 284 | 3 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1/1 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 6 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 3 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Seth DeValve | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.96
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.47