2018 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Driskel

18·26

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CLE -10

Total

44

Model margin

+5.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.013EPA / play-0.009
  • 43.6%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.091
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -3.54CPOE-0.95
  • 36.9%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.75
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00630Punt0–0
CINQ1 12:13828Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:58620Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:2131Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:431374Touchdown0–7
CINQ2 10:203-11Punt0–7
CLEQ2 8:45370Touchdown0–13
CINQ2 7:12619Punt0–13
CLEQ2 4:55961Field goal0–16
CINQ2 0:1000End of half0–16
CINQ3 15:00839Punt0–16
CLEQ3 9:51987Touchdown0–23
CINQ3 4:53936Field goal3–23
CLEQ4 14:551472Field goal3–26
CINQ4 7:26675Touchdown10–26
CLEQ4 4:5636Punt10–26
CINQ4 3:53323Touchdown18–26
CLEQ4 2:56376End of half18–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel13/1913320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17684.00
Jeff Driskel5214.20
John Ross177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Uzomah45491
Cody Core23360
Alex Erickson22350
Joe Mixon22100
John Ross1531
Giovani Bernard2200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield27/3728430
Jarvis Landry1/16300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb191125.90
Baker Mayfield6162.70
Duke Johnson2126.00
Jarvis Landry166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Breshad Perriman24760
David Njoku34731
Rashard Higgins67601
Duke Johnson66540
Jarvis Landry48470
Darren Fells33181
Dontrell Hilliard11150
Nick Chubb2330
Seth DeValve1110
Antonio Callaway0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.96
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.47