2018 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

27·9

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • -0.075EPA / play-0.022
  • 43.2%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.027
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.106
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +2.40CPOE-2.79
  • 36.2%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.75
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00631Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:3632Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:10428Field goal0–3
MINQ1 7:3036Punt0–3
DETQ1 6:00931Punt0–3
MINQ1 1:433-4Punt0–3
DETQ2 14:50921Field goal0–6
MINQ2 10:3931Punt0–6
DETQ2 8:22829Field goal0–9
MINQ2 4:05989Touchdown7–9
DETQ2 1:3259Punt7–9
MINQ2 0:36680Touchdown14–9
MINQ3 15:001069Field goal17–9
DETQ3 8:5433Punt17–9
MINQ3 7:2139Punt17–9
DETQ3 5:5642Punt17–9
MINQ3 4:031074Touchdown24–9
DETQ4 13:25824Punt24–9
MINQ4 9:05412Punt24–9
DETQ4 7:134-1Turnover on downs24–9
MINQ4 6:303-1Field goal27–9
DETQ4 4:15519Turnover on downs27–9
MINQ4 3:0443Turnover on downs27–9
DETQ4 2:031027End of half27–9

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/2825330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook16734.60
Latavius Murray9222.40
Adam Thielen133.00
Kirk Cousins111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph991222
Adam Thielen56800
Dalvin Cook33350
Stefon Diggs26101
Latavius Murray2260
Aldrick Robinson0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3211600
Matt Cassel5/114500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner8455.60
LeGarrette Blount11292.60
Matt Cassel11414.00
Theo Riddick3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay615580
T.J. Jones66420
Zach Zenner23220
Levine Toilolo11160
Andy Jones15120
Brandon Powell1290
Theo Riddick4570
Jerome Cunningham0100
LeGarrette Blount24-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.2%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.17