Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.075EPA / play-0.022
- 43.2%Success rate41.5%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.106
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.7%
- +2.40CPOE-2.79
- 36.2%Third-down rate36.1%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.57Points / drive1.75
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/28 | 253 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 16 | 73 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 9 | 9 | 122 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/32 | 116 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 5/11 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 6 | 15 | 58 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 6 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Andy Jones | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jerome Cunningham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 2 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17