Closing spread
SEA -15.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.240EPA / play+0.093
- 35.6%Success rate44.2%
- -0.267EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.027
- 6.0%Explosive rate11.2%
- -7.13CPOE+7.30
- 29.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 0.92Points / drive2.23
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Rosen | 18/34 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chad Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Williams | 5 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 9 | 36 | 1 |
| John Phillips | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/21 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 19 | 122 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.12