2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Josh Rosen

24·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -15.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+7.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.240EPA / play+0.093
  • 35.6%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.267EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.027
  • 6.0%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -7.13CPOE+7.30
  • 29.0%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 0.92Points / drive2.23
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:28832Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 9:44611Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 7:223-4Punt3–0
ARIQ1 5:2549Turnover on downs3–0
SEAQ1 3:51647Touchdown3–7
ARIQ1 1:2569Turnover3–7
SEAQ2 13:51544Touchdown3–14
ARIQ2 11:39520Punt3–14
SEAQ2 9:133-7Punt3–14
ARIQ2 7:12327Touchdown10–14
SEAQ2 5:443-4Punt10–14
ARIQ2 3:253-11Field goal13–14
SEAQ2 1:1230Punt13–14
ARIQ2 0:47631End of half13–14
SEAQ3 15:0036Punt13–14
ARIQ3 13:43313Punt13–14
SEAQ3 11:433-8Punt13–14
ARIQ3 10:34513Punt13–14
SEAQ3 7:28693Touchdown13–21
ARIQ3 4:3478Punt13–21
SEAQ3 1:4535Opp touchdown21–21
SEAQ3 0:11520Punt21–21
ARIQ4 12:27621Turnover21–21
SEAQ4 8:5857Field goal21–24
ARIQ4 6:20838Field goal24–24
SEAQ4 1:49663Field goal24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Rosen18/3414910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson17623.60
Chase Edmonds6142.30
Chad Williams199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Williams511510
Larry Fitzgerald49361
John Phillips22290
Trent Sherfield24230
David Johnson3460
Chase Edmonds2240
Darrell Daniels0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/2115211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson191226.41
Mike Davis7446.31
Ed Dickson199.00
Rashaad Penny461.50
Tyler Lockett133.00
Russell Wilson2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett22661
Doug Baldwin25270
Nick Vannett23170
David Moore24160
Mike Davis23120
Jaron Brown1270
Chris Carson1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +15.57.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.12