Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.102
- 43.6%Success rate47.5%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.194
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.112
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.54CPOE+1.39
- 36.9%Third-down rate43.9%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
- 1.95Points / drive2.23
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 12/24 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 105 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Erickson | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| John Ross | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 31/45 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Washington | 3 | 3 | 64 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 7 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 10 | 37 | 1 |
| James Conner | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.6%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.29