2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Driskel

13·16

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.102
  • 43.6%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.194
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.112
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -3.54CPOE+1.39
  • 36.9%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate73.7%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.23
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:00837Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:4339Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:3632Punt0–0
CINQ1 5:09926Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:56727Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ2 12:37626Punt7–0
CINQ2 8:431166Field goal10–0
PITQ2 2:12849Field goal10–3
CINQ3 15:003-5Punt10–3
PITQ3 13:3134Punt10–3
CINQ3 11:57615Punt10–3
PITQ3 8:1135Punt10–3
CINQ3 6:4539Punt10–3
PITQ3 5:15374Touchdown10–10
CINQ3 3:50519Punt10–10
PITQ3 0:541463Field goal10–13
CINQ4 8:35547Field goal13–13
PITQ4 6:171158Field goal13–16
CINQ4 1:56410Turnover on downs13–16
PITQ4 1:0800End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel12/249500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon131058.10
Jeff Driskel2136.50
Giovani Bernard372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alex Erickson66630
Auden Tate13150
Giovani Bernard2580
C.J. Uzomah1160
Joe Mixon1120
John Ross1510
Cody Core0100
Josh Malone0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger31/4528711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14644.60
Ben Roethlisberger331.00
Jaylen Samuels221.00
Eli Rogers1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Washington33640
Eli Rogers79570
Jaylen Samuels78400
Vance McDonald36390
JuJu Smith-Schuster510371
James Conner33300
Xavier Grimble11160
Ryan Switzer1320
Jesse James0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.6%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.29