Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
41
Model margin
+1.5est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.035
- 42.8%Success rate45.8%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.091EPA / rush+0.003
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- -0.95CPOE-3.77
- 35.9%Third-down rate45.4%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.75Points / drive2.01
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 23/42 | 376 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 9 | 102 | 1 |
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 6 | 86 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 4 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 2 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/24 | 179 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Dixon | 12 | 117 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 20 | 90 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.35
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.48