Closing spread
NYG -7.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.016
- 43.9%Success rate39.9%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.9%Explosive rate9.5%
- +1.03CPOE+0.30
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.5%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.93Points / drive1.89
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/44 | 387 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Darius Jackson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Jarwin | 7 | 8 | 119 | 3 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 6 | 94 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 49 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 11 | 31 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/41 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 109 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 4 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.57