2018 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

36·35

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

NYG -7.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.016
  • 43.9%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.9%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +1.03CPOE+0.30
  • 41.3%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.89
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00556Turnover0–0
DALQ1 11:58728Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:09740Turnover0–0
DALQ1 4:15830Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 1:0736Punt0–0
DALQ2 14:481665Touchdown7–0
NYGQ2 8:1131Punt7–0
DALQ2 7:141162Touchdown14–0
NYGQ2 1:501073Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 0:1500End of half14–7
DALQ3 15:003-6Punt14–7
NYGQ3 13:10720Field goal14–10
DALQ3 9:00876Touchdown21–10
NYGQ3 5:00783Touchdown21–18
DALQ3 1:53518Punt21–18
NYGQ4 14:52881Touchdown21–25
DALQ4 10:38574Touchdown28–25
NYGQ4 9:111274Touchdown28–32
DALQ4 3:2110Turnover28–32
NYGQ4 3:0947Field goal28–35
DALQ4 2:35975Touchdown36–35
NYGQ4 1:1240Turnover on downs36–35
DALQ4 0:4600End of half36–35

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott27/4438740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rod Smith12352.91
Darius Jackson6162.70
Dak Prescott400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Blake Jarwin781193
Cole Beasley66941
Michael Gallup36500
Allen Hurns11490
Amari Cooper511310
Dalton Schultz12170
Rod Smith23140
Tavon Austin13100
Noah Brown1130
Jamize Olawale0100
Darius Jackson0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning24/4130121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley171096.41
Wayne Gallman6233.81
Sterling Shepard199.00
Eli Manning122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram58811
Cody Latimer46721
Sterling Shepard49670
Saquon Barkley48330
Bennie Fowler34210
Scott Simonson22140
Wayne Gallman1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.57