2019 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

10·3

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.059EPA / play-0.079
  • 43.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +0.96CPOE-1.71
  • 37.9%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 69.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.50
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:0177Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:393-7Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:53516Field goal0–3
GBQ1 4:0935Punt0–3
CHIQ1 3:13819Punt0–3
GBQ2 14:43474Touchdown7–3
CHIQ2 13:08434Punt7–3
GBQ2 11:10822Punt7–3
CHIQ2 5:25622Punt7–3
GBQ2 2:07619Punt7–3
CHIQ2 0:4330Punt7–3
GBQ2 0:15216End of half7–3
CHIQ3 15:0032Punt7–3
GBQ3 13:4271Punt7–3
CHIQ3 10:5139Punt7–3
GBQ3 9:013-10Punt7–3
CHIQ3 6:30657Turnover on downs7–3
GBQ3 3:54725Punt7–3
CHIQ4 14:53938Punt7–3
GBQ4 11:481073Field goal10–3
CHIQ4 5:151359Turnover10–3
GBQ4 1:5837Punt10–3
CHIQ4 1:334-9Turnover on downs10–3
GBQ4 1:0200End of half10–3

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/3020310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones13393.00
Aaron Rodgers382.70
Jamaal Williams500.00
Marquez Valdes-Scantling100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling46520
Davante Adams48360
Jimmy Graham35301
Trevor Davis11280
Robert Tonyan11280
Jamaal Williams22150
Marcedes Lewis23140
Aaron Jones1100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky26/4522801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis5193.80
David Montgomery6183.00
Mitchell Trubisky3113.70
Cordarrelle Patterson1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson7131020
Tarik Cohen810490
David Montgomery11270
Taylor Gabriel25240
Mike Davis67170
Adam Shaheen1260
Cordarrelle Patterson1330
Anthony Miller0100
Javon Wims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.58