Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play-0.079
- 43.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.0%
- +0.96CPOE-1.71
- 37.9%Third-down rate36.4%
- 69.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.50
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/30 | 203 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 13 | 39 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Trevor Davis | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 26/45 | 228 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 6 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58