2019 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

17·35

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -7

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.111
  • 41.8%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.017
  • 8.9%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -1.92CPOE+1.10
  • 37.8%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.56Points / drive2.45
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–DAL
DALQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:13788Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 8:061185Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 3:19640Punt7–7
DALQ1 0:1810103Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 10:19422Punt7–14
DALQ2 7:561788Touchdown7–21
NYGQ2 1:13831Turnover on downs7–21
NYGQ3 15:001075Field goal10–21
DALQ3 10:59375Touchdown10–28
NYGQ3 9:48964Turnover10–28
DALQ3 5:13789Touchdown10–35
NYGQ3 1:14731Punt10–35
DALQ4 13:37522Punt10–35
NYGQ4 10:44622Punt10–35
DALQ4 7:5345Punt10–35
NYGQ4 5:14675Touchdown17–35
DALQ4 2:4930Punt17–35
NYGQ4 1:46522Turnover17–35
DALQ4 1:1700End of half17–35

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning30/4430610
Daniel Jones3/41700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley1112010.90
Wayne Gallman2178.51
Eli Manning166.00
Daniel Jones155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram11141161
Cody Latimer37740
Sterling Shepard67420
Bennie Fowler55400
Wayne Gallman33240
Saquon Barkley46190
Rhett Ellison1280

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3240540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott13534.11
Tony Pollard13241.80
Dak Prescott4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup771580
Amari Cooper691061
Randall Cobb45691
Blake Jarwin33391
Jason Witten34151
Ezekiel Elliott12100
Tavon Austin1180
Jamize Olawale0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02