Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.111
- 41.8%Success rate48.7%
- -0.034EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.9%Explosive rate11.1%
- -1.92CPOE+1.10
- 37.8%Third-down rate47.2%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.56Points / drive2.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 30/44 | 306 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3/4 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 11 | 120 | 10.9 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 11 | 14 | 116 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/32 | 405 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 13 | 24 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 7 | 7 | 158 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 69 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02