2019 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

27·32

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.004
  • 38.8%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.94CPOE-1.01
  • 29.0%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.49Points / drive2.01
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. PHI are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
WASQ1 15:00780Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 10:54519Punt7–0
WASQ1 8:431167Field goal10–0
PHIQ1 2:481241Turnover on downs10–0
WASQ2 10:49271Touchdown17–0
PHIQ2 9:5737Punt17–0
WASQ2 8:02410Punt17–0
PHIQ2 5:47562Touchdown17–7
WASQ2 4:1939Punt17–7
PHIQ2 2:2735Punt17–7
WASQ2 1:41841Field goal20–7
PHIQ3 15:001275Touchdown20–14
WASQ3 7:5036Punt20–14
PHIQ3 5:22353Touchdown20–21
WASQ3 5:0730Punt20–21
PHIQ3 4:37971Touchdown20–29
WASQ4 14:55424Punt20–29
PHIQ4 12:0520104Field goal20–32
WASQ4 3:101790Touchdown27–32
PHIQ4 0:0600End of half27–32

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum30/4438030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrius Guice10181.80
Chris Thompson3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin571251
Chris Thompson710680
Vernon Davis47591
Paul Richardson47360
Trey Quinn46331
Kelvin Harmon22310
Derrius Guice33200
Jeremy Sprinkle1180

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz28/3931330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darren Sproles9475.20
Jordan Howard6447.30
Miles Sanders11252.30
Carson Wentz451.30
Alshon Jeffery122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson891542
Zach Ertz57540
Alshon Jeffery57491
Darren Sproles33160
Dallas Goedert23160
Nelson Agholor25110
Jordan Howard23110
Miles Sanders1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.71