2019 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.004
- 38.8%Success rate44.9%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -2.94CPOE-1.01
- 29.0%Third-down rate45.1%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.49Points / drive2.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 30/44 | 380 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Guice | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 7 | 125 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 4 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Derrius Guice | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 28/39 | 313 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 9 | 47 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 8 | 9 | 154 | 2 |
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.71