2019 · Week 2 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
46.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.130
- 48.7%Success rate38.8%
- +0.192EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.164
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.10CPOE-2.94
- 47.2%Third-down rate29.0%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 2.45Points / drive1.49
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 26/30 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 111 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 69 | 13.8 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Smith | 3 | 3 | 74 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 26/37 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.37
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.63