2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

31·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

46.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.130
  • 48.7%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.164
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.10CPOE-2.94
  • 47.2%Third-down rate29.0%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.49
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:3536Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:03417Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:40633Turnover0–0
WASQ1 5:081148Touchdown0–7
DALQ2 14:153-3Punt0–7
WASQ2 12:4973Punt0–7
DALQ2 9:44797Touchdown7–7
WASQ2 6:1037Punt7–7
DALQ2 4:321374Touchdown14–7
WASQ2 0:0900End of half14–7
DALQ3 15:001085Touchdown21–7
WASQ3 9:581170Touchdown21–14
DALQ3 4:301183Field goal24–14
WASQ4 13:51629Turnover on downs24–14
DALQ4 11:041054Touchdown31–14
WASQ4 5:071165Touchdown31–21
DALQ4 2:17546End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott26/3026931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott231114.81
Dak Prescott56913.80
Tony Pollard4225.50
Randall Cobb2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devin Smith33741
Michael Gallup68680
Amari Cooper45441
Jason Witten44251
Randall Cobb56240
Blake Jarwin11220
Ezekiel Elliott2290
Tony Pollard1130

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum26/3722120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson10252.51
Steven Sims3165.30
Wendell Smallwood144.00
Chris Thompson231.50
Case Keenum1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin59621
Chris Thompson58480
Trey Quinn47360
Vernon Davis34290
Paul Richardson33161
Jeremy Sprinkle11110
Wendell Smallwood2290
Adrian Peterson2270
Steven Sims1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.63