Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.063
- 44.5%Success rate45.7%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.143
- +0.022EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.6%
- -3.86CPOE+3.45
- 41.9%Third-down rate39.4%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 1.94Points / drive1.99
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 17/28 | 146 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 5 | 82 | 16.4 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Cain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/28 | 154 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48