2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Jacoby Brissett

19·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 93°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapTitans
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.063
  • 44.5%Success rate45.7%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.143
  • +0.022EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.6%
  • -3.86CPOE+3.45
  • 41.9%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 1.94Points / drive1.99
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–16 since 1999

Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 21-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6TEN @ IND26–20TEN
2025 · W8TEN @ IND14–38IND
2025 · W3IND @ TEN41–20IND
2024 · W16TEN @ IND30–38IND
2024 · W6IND @ TEN20–17IND
2023 · W13IND @ TEN31–28IND
2023 · W5TEN @ IND16–23IND
2022 · W7IND @ TEN10–19TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–TEN
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:12832Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 8:5339Punt7–0
INDQ1 7:25413Punt7–0
TENQ1 5:261073Touchdown7–7
INDQ2 14:551479Touchdown13–7
TENQ2 8:0060Punt13–7
INDQ2 3:5234Turnover13–7
TENQ2 2:21513Punt13–7
INDQ2 1:13741End of half13–7
INDQ3 15:0033Punt13–7
TENQ3 13:09538Touchdown13–14
INDQ3 11:31820Turnover13–14
TENQ3 7:14414Field goal13–17
INDQ3 4:35617Punt13–17
TENQ3 1:331146Missed field goal13–17
INDQ4 10:3135Punt13–17
TENQ4 8:2035Punt13–17
INDQ4 6:41469Touchdown19–17
TENQ4 4:3839Punt19–17
INDQ4 3:2986Punt19–17
TENQ4 1:07427Turnover on downs19–17
INDQ4 0:1100End of half19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett17/2814631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins58216.40
Marlon Mack20512.50
Jacoby Brissett7253.60
Nyheim Hines294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton46431
Eric Ebron34251
Chester Rogers34240
Jack Doyle23210
Marlon Mack23120
Parris Campbell11121
Nyheim Hines1250
Jordan Wilkins1140
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Deon Cain0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/2815410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15825.51
Marcus Mariota5326.40
Dion Lewis393.00
Adam Humphries111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker46390
Corey Davis35380
A.J. Brown35250
Tajae Sharpe22240
Derrick Henry23120
Darius Jennings11110
Dion Lewis1150
Adam Humphries22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.48