Closing spread
GB -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.059
- 42.1%Success rate43.9%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.53CPOE+0.96
- 44.0%Third-down rate37.9%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 2.31Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 14/32 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 20 | 154 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 1 | 1 | 61 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 1 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 22/34 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 23 | 116 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 4 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Jake Kumerow | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.49