2019 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

16·21

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

43

Model margin

+2.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPackers
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.059
  • 42.1%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +3.53CPOE+0.96
  • 44.0%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.12
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–GB
GBQ1 15:00475Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 12:50746Missed field goal0–7
GBQ1 9:161168Touchdown0–14
MINQ1 3:1847Turnover0–14
GBQ1 1:16433Touchdown0–21
MINQ2 14:16275Touchdown7–21
GBQ2 14:00422Turnover7–21
MINQ2 12:3632Punt7–21
GBQ2 11:3939Punt7–21
MINQ2 9:2838Punt7–21
GBQ2 7:5769Punt7–21
MINQ2 4:5634Turnover7–21
GBQ2 4:04620Turnover on downs7–21
MINQ2 1:33665Field goal10–21
GBQ2 0:513-6Punt10–21
MINQ2 0:2322End of half10–21
MINQ3 15:0039Punt10–21
GBQ3 13:49627Turnover10–21
MINQ3 10:07452Touchdown16–21
GBQ3 9:12615Punt16–21
MINQ3 5:34953Punt16–21
GBQ3 0:51419Punt16–21
MINQ4 14:40626Punt16–21
GBQ4 11:4844Punt16–21
MINQ4 10:08952Turnover16–21
GBQ4 5:1038Punt16–21
MINQ4 4:0633Punt16–21
GBQ4 3:14732Punt16–21
MINQ4 0:06117Turnover16–21

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins14/3223012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook201547.71
Alexander Mattison4256.30
Kirk Cousins2178.50
Ameer Abdullah122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen58750
Chad Beebe11610
Stefon Diggs17491
Dalvin Cook33370
Kyle Rudolph3490
Irv Smith12-10

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers22/3420920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones231165.01
Jamaal Williams9283.10
Aaron Rodgers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams791060
Aaron Jones46340
Geronimo Allison44251
Marquez Valdes-Scantling35190
Jamaal Williams34131
Jake Kumerow11120
Marcedes Lewis0100
Jimmy Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.49