Closing spread
TEN -1.5
Total
38
Model margin
+1.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.053
- 45.7%Success rate39.3%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.010
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.145
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.45CPOE-3.03
- 39.4%Third-down rate35.4%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
- 1.99Points / drive1.61
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 23/40 | 304 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 7 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 20/30 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Chark | 4 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Dede Westbrook | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 6 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.65