2019 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

7·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -1.5

Total

38

Model margin

+1.6est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.053
  • 45.7%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.010
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.145
  • 11.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.45CPOE-3.03
  • 39.4%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate47.6%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.61
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00419Punt0–6
JAXQ1 13:0717Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 13:02614Punt0–7
JAXQ1 10:08662Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 6:36528Punt0–14
JAXQ1 3:2730Punt0–14
TENQ1 1:34520Punt0–14
JAXQ2 14:16617Punt0–14
TENQ2 11:2934Punt0–14
JAXQ2 10:35414Punt0–14
TENQ2 7:581142Punt0–14
JAXQ2 1:5136Punt0–14
TENQ2 1:1440Punt0–14
JAXQ2 0:45314End of half0–14
TENQ3 15:00955Turnover on downs0–14
JAXQ3 11:27658Field goal0–17
TENQ3 7:541128Punt0–17
JAXQ3 1:0333Punt0–17
TENQ4 14:46765Touchdown7–17
JAXQ4 12:04919Field goal7–20
TENQ4 7:3463Punt7–20
JAXQ4 4:38574Turnover on downs7–20
TENQ4 3:231281End of half7–20

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota23/4030400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry17442.61
Marcus Mariota6345.70
Dion Lewis3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Humphries69930
Tajae Sharpe23700
Delanie Walker79640
Corey Davis34440
Jonnu Smith23200
Dion Lewis1170
A.J. Brown1540
Derrick Henry1220
Darius Jennings0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew20/3020420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette15664.40
Gardner Minshew4184.50
Dede Westbrook144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Chark45761
Dede Westbrook59460
Chris Conley23300
Leonard Fournette68260
James O'Shaughnessy23181
Geoff Swaim1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.65