2019 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

3·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PIT -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.136
  • 40.3%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.137EPA / rush-0.257
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.27CPOE-1.51
  • 36.0%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.35
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
CINQ1 15:00733Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:0223Turnover0–0
CINQ1 9:1635Field goal3–0
PITQ1 8:22833Turnover on downs3–0
CINQ1 4:023-1Punt3–0
PITQ1 3:11938Punt3–0
CINQ2 14:1230Punt3–0
PITQ2 13:12546Touchdown3–7
CINQ2 10:32946Turnover3–7
PITQ2 5:491060Field goal3–10
CINQ2 0:58317End of half3–10
PITQ3 15:00880Touchdown3–17
CINQ3 10:363-11Punt3–17
PITQ3 9:35243Touchdown3–24
CINQ3 9:24612Punt3–24
PITQ3 5:1937Punt3–24
CINQ3 3:451764Turnover3–24
PITQ4 11:02819Field goal3–27
CINQ4 5:511210Turnover on downs3–27
PITQ4 1:5000End of half3–27

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3717101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon15624.10
Andy Dalton382.70
Giovani Bernard133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Auden Tate46500
John Ross36360
Tyler Boyd36330
Tyler Eifert25270
Giovani Bernard46160
Damion Willis1180
Joe Mixon4510
C.J. Uzomah0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph24/2822920
Jaylen Samuels3/33100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner10424.20
Jaylen Samuels10262.61
Benny Snell210.50
Mason Rudolph3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Conner88831
Diontae Johnson66771
Jaylen Samuels88570
Nick Vannett22280
JuJu Smith-Schuster34150
James Washington0100
Benny Snell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.10