Closing spread
PIT -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.136
- 40.3%Success rate38.5%
- -0.076EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.137EPA / rush-0.257
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.27CPOE-1.51
- 36.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/37 | 171 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| John Ross | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 24/28 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3/3 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 8 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 6 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 8 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| James Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.36
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.10