Closing spread
BAL -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+6.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.203
- 41.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.025EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.116EPA / rush+0.088
- 10.1%Explosive rate12.0%
- -3.23CPOE+3.13
- 36.3%Third-down rate48.0%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.80Points / drive2.90
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 20/30 | 342 | 1 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 165 | 8.3 | 3 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 10 | 167 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 3 | 3 | 82 | 1 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 24/34 | 247 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 12 | 71 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 61 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 8 | 31 | 1 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.68