2019 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

40·25

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+6.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.203
  • 41.3%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.025EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.116EPA / rush+0.088
  • 10.1%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -3.23CPOE+3.13
  • 36.3%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.90
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
CLEQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:3232Punt0–0
CLEQ1 11:211599Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 2:50726Punt7–0
CLEQ2 14:53522Punt7–0
BALQ2 11:32614Punt7–0
CLEQ2 8:19643Turnover7–0
BALQ2 5:35761Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 1:551076Field goal10–7
BALQ2 0:0800End of half10–7
BALQ3 15:00757Field goal10–10
CLEQ3 11:15375Touchdown17–10
BALQ3 9:41749Turnover17–10
CLEQ3 6:111084Touchdown24–10
BALQ3 0:531475Touchdown24–18
CLEQ4 9:51188Touchdown30–18
BALQ4 9:3547Turnover on downs30–18
CLEQ4 8:1536Field goal33–18
BALQ4 6:56421Turnover33–18
CLEQ4 5:5230Punt33–18
BALQ4 5:3020Turnover33–18
CLEQ4 5:21639Touchdown40–18
BALQ4 2:14684Touchdown40–25
CLEQ4 0:3000End of half40–25

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield20/3034211
Odell Beckham Jr.0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201658.33
Dontrell Hilliard6274.51
Baker Mayfield310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry8101670
Ricky Seals-Jones33821
Dontrell Hilliard23270
Odell Beckham Jr.27200
Pharaoh Brown11180
Nick Chubb34180
Damion Ratley13100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson24/3424732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram12715.90
Lamar Jackson9667.30
Gus Edwards6284.70
Justice Hill284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead22611
Hayden Hurst22390
Seth Roberts45360
Miles Boykin33321
Mark Andrews48311
Marquise Brown47220
Nick Boyle1190
Justice Hill2290
Gus Edwards1180
Mark Ingram1100
Chris Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.68