Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
38
Model margin
-0.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.079
- 42.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.188
- 10.7%Explosive rate6.0%
- +3.53CPOE-1.71
- 44.0%Third-down rate36.4%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.31Points / drive1.50
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 27/36 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 14 | 35 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 108 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 22/30 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2/3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 21 | 53 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 7 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| J.P. Holtz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.16