2019 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

6·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

38

Model margin

-0.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.079
  • 42.1%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.188
  • 10.7%Explosive rate6.0%
  • +3.53CPOE-1.71
  • 44.0%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.50
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001575Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:44928Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:02950Punt0–7
MINQ2 13:071331Turnover0–7
CHIQ2 6:361657Field goal0–10
MINQ3 15:001-9Turnover0–10
CHIQ3 14:543-4Field goal0–13
MINQ3 12:4738Punt0–13
CHIQ3 11:1839Punt0–13
MINQ3 9:133-5Punt0–13
CHIQ3 8:03862Field goal0–16
MINQ3 3:04745Punt0–16
CHIQ4 14:5337Punt0–16
MINQ4 13:2445Punt0–16
CHIQ4 10:48610Punt0–16
MINQ4 7:0613102Touchdown6–16
CHIQ4 2:5834Punt6–16
MINQ4 2:3345Turnover on downs6–16
CHIQ4 2:174-1Turnover on downs6–16
MINQ4 0:24212End of half6–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins27/3623300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook14352.51
Alexander Mattison252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs771080
Dalvin Cook68350
Bisi Johnson44350
Ameer Abdullah23140
Kyle Rudolph11120
Alexander Mattison1180
Adam Thielen2660
Irv Smith1150

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chase Daniel22/3019510
Mitchell Trubisky2/3900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery21532.50
Tarik Cohen5112.20
Chase Daniel540.80
Cordarrelle Patterson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson77770
Javon Wims45560
Trey Burton24160
David Montgomery35140
Adam Shaheen22130
Anthony Miller23110
J.P. Holtz1170
Tarik Cohen2571
Cordarrelle Patterson1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.16