Closing spread
IND -11
Total
45
Model margin
+3.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid AusberryTEShoulder· DNP
- OutJared VeldheerTTriceps· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSio MooreLBFoot· Limited
- ProbableSebastian JanikowskiKright Calf· Limited
- ProbableMatt FlynnQBright Elbow· Full
Colts
- OutKavell ConnerLBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulPat AngererLBConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableDavid ReedWRConcussion· DNP
- QuestionableFili MoalaDTFoot· Full
- DNPReggie WayneWRNot Injury Related
- ProbableAhmad BradshawRBFoot· Full
- ProbableAnthony CastonzoTKnee· Full
- ProbableCoby FleenerTEKnee· Full
- ProbableDwayne AllenTEFoot· Full
- ProbableJoe YoungSKnee· Full
- ProbableMario HarveyLBKnee· Full
- ProbableMike McGlynnGKnee· Full
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 48 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:04 | 10 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:47 | 5 | 36 | Punt | 0–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:17 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LV | Q2 10:47 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 4:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 2:52 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 1:46 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q2 1:04 | 4 | 24 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 35 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LV | Q3 10:23 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 10–14 |
| IND | Q3 5:42 | 7 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 10–14 |
| LV | Q3 1:50 | 11 | 49 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| IND | Q4 11:09 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LV | Q4 5:20 | 10 | 61 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| IND | Q4 0:25 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/23 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.