Closing spread
IND -11
Total
45
Model margin
+3.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. IND are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 18/23 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 8 | 96 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Vick Ballard | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.