2019 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

27·10

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.014
  • 45.5%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.134EPA / rush+0.004
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +7.05CPOE-1.81
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.85
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
ARIQ1 15:001049Missed field goal0–0
SEAQ1 9:431052Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 4:5925Opp touchdown10–0
ARIQ1 4:151170Field goal10–3
SEAQ2 13:49675Touchdown17–3
ARIQ2 10:48645Missed field goal17–3
SEAQ2 7:3834Punt17–3
ARIQ2 5:1544Punt17–3
SEAQ2 4:10950Field goal20–3
ARIQ2 0:1700End of half20–3
SEAQ3 15:00520Punt20–3
ARIQ3 11:3731Punt20–3
SEAQ3 10:09628Punt20–3
ARIQ3 6:03729Punt20–3
SEAQ3 2:18630Punt20–3
ARIQ4 13:321065Touchdown20–10
SEAQ4 10:211781Touchdown27–10
ARIQ4 2:13954End of half27–10

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/2824010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson221044.70
Russell Wilson273.50
C.J. Prosise341.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Dissly78571
Tyler Lockett44510
Jaron Brown33500
Chris Carson44410
Luke Willson22260
David Moore1290
DK Metcalf1460

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3224101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson11403.60
Chase Edmonds6376.20
Kyler Murray4276.81
Christian Kirk166.00
Andy Isabella155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Johnson811990
Larry Fitzgerald55470
Christian Kirk45370
Maxx Williams11210
KeeSean Johnson23190
Trent Sherfield13150
Charles Clay1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.23