Closing spread
SEA -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.014
- 45.5%Success rate42.7%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.134EPA / rush+0.004
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.9%
- +7.05CPOE-1.81
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.86Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/28 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 22 | 104 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 7 | 8 | 57 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/32 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 8 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.23