2019 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Case Keenum

3·24

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

48

Model margin

+3.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.130EPA / play-0.064
  • 38.8%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.110EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.129
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -2.94CPOE-1.92
  • 29.0%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.56
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 14:001046Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 8:45726Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:001587Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 12:01416Punt0–14
NYGQ2 9:08223Turnover0–14
WASQ2 8:1730Punt0–14
NYGQ2 7:1627Turnover0–14
WASQ2 6:351139Field goal3–14
NYGQ2 2:141170Field goal3–17
NYGQ3 15:00821Punt3–17
WASQ3 10:0837Punt3–17
NYGQ3 8:511267Turnover3–17
WASQ3 1:55220Opp touchdown3–24
WASQ3 1:1957Punt3–24
NYGQ4 13:2335Punt3–24
WASQ4 12:36542Turnover3–24
NYGQ4 10:29629Punt3–24
WASQ4 6:3038Punt3–24
NYGQ4 4:2722Turnover3–24
WASQ4 3:4036Turnover3–24
NYGQ4 2:48434End of half3–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dwayne Haskins9/1710703
Case Keenum6/113701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson11282.50
Dwayne Haskins22311.50
Chris Thompson441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Thompson45560
Jeremy Sprinkle13200
Paul Richardson35140
Wendell Smallwood11140
Kelvin Harmon22140
Robert Davis12110
Trey Quinn24100
Vernon Davis1450

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones23/3122512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wayne Gallman18633.51
Jon Hilliman10333.30
Daniel Jones5336.60
Sterling Shepard12323.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard79760
Wayne Gallman67551
Evan Engram47540
Rhett Ellison34240
Darius Slayton22130
Bennie Fowler1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.21