2019 · Week 4 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 11mph
Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
48
Model margin
+3.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play-0.064
- 38.8%Success rate41.8%
- -0.110EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.129
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- -2.94CPOE-1.92
- 29.0%Third-down rate37.8%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.56
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 9/17 | 107 | 0 | 3 |
| Case Keenum | 6/11 | 37 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kelvin Harmon | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Davis | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Trey Quinn | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 23/31 | 225 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Gallman | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jon Hilliman | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 9 | 76 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.39
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.21