2019 · Week 5 · Division

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

26·23

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

-2.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.203EPA / play-0.136
  • 48.1%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback-0.061
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.257
  • 12.0%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +3.13CPOE-1.51
  • 48.0%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.35
  • 1.3%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:37945Field goal3–0
PITQ1 7:2110Turnover3–0
BALQ1 7:09618Touchdown10–0
PITQ1 4:48575Touchdown10–7
BALQ1 2:411375Touchdown17–7
PITQ2 11:21625Punt17–7
BALQ2 8:073-1Turnover17–7
PITQ2 6:424-12Field goal17–10
BALQ2 4:393-9Punt17–10
PITQ2 3:06712Punt17–10
BALQ2 1:3648Turnover17–10
PITQ2 0:3334Field goal17–13
BALQ3 15:001132Turnover17–13
PITQ3 8:221165Touchdown17–20
BALQ3 3:421277Field goal20–20
PITQ4 11:391054Punt20–20
BALQ4 7:1430Punt20–20
PITQ4 6:05525Field goal20–23
BALQ4 2:37930Field goal23–23
PITQ4 0:1000End of half23–23
BALOT3-4Punt23–23
PITOT213Turnover23–23
BALOT36Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/2816113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson14705.00
Mark Ingram19442.31
Gus Edwards5173.40
Justice Hill273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Snead45510
Mark Andrews57450
Hayden Hurst44320
Marquise Brown35221
Gus Edwards1160
Mark Ingram2250
Seth Roberts0200
Nick Boyle0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph13/2013110
Devlin Hodges7/96800
Jaylen Samuels1/2401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner14553.91
Devlin Hodges22010.00
Jaylen Samuels320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster77751
James Washington36520
Vance McDonald33340
Diontae Johnson58270
Jaylen Samuels34110
Johnny Holton0140
Nick Vannett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.4%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.87