Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
-2.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play-0.136
- 48.1%Success rate38.5%
- +0.322EPA / dropback-0.061
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.257
- 12.0%Explosive rate7.4%
- +3.13CPOE-1.51
- 48.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 2.90Points / drive1.35
- 1.3%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/28 | 161 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 19 | 44 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Snead | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 3 | 5 | 22 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 13/20 | 131 | 1 | 0 |
| Devlin Hodges | 7/9 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Devlin Hodges | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 7 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| James Washington | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Johnny Holton | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.4%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.87