Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
49
Model margin
+0.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.018
- 44.3%Success rate45.5%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.119
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.88CPOE+7.05
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.1%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.95Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 29/49 | 395 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 7 | 11 | 136 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 17 | 117 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 9 | 48 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/23 | 268 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 27 | 118 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dissly | 4 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 51 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Jaron Brown | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93