2019 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

29·30

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -1.5

Total

49

Model margin

+0.9est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.001EPA / play+0.018
  • 44.3%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.119
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.88CPOE+7.05
  • 38.8%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.95Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00317Turnover0–0
LAQ1 13:4734Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 12:24616Punt3–0
LAQ1 9:27955Field goal6–0
SEAQ1 4:55775Touchdown6–7
LAQ1 0:4930Punt6–7
SEAQ1 0:19631Punt6–7
LAQ2 12:2634Punt6–7
SEAQ2 10:54668Touchdown6–14
LAQ2 8:08558Turnover6–14
SEAQ2 5:25753Missed field goal6–14
LAQ2 1:34950Touchdown13–14
SEAQ2 0:0600End of half13–14
LAQ3 15:00675Touchdown20–14
SEAQ3 12:0748Punt20–14
LAQ3 9:4231Punt20–14
SEAQ3 8:44647Touchdown20–21
LAQ3 5:45575Touchdown26–21
SEAQ3 3:07956Field goal26–24
LAQ4 13:371067Field goal29–24
SEAQ4 9:191360Touchdown29–30
LAQ4 2:28411Turnover29–30
SEAQ4 2:0830Punt29–30
LAQ4 1:38977Missed field goal29–30
SEAQ4 0:1100End of half29–30

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff29/4939511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley15513.42
Brandin Cooks12727.00
Malcolm Brown133.00
Jared Goff111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gerald Everett7111360
Cooper Kupp9171171
Robert Woods59480
Tyler Higbee33470
Brandin Cooks13290
Josh Reynolds11120
Todd Gurley3560

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/2326840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson271184.40
Russell Wilson8324.00
Rashaad Penny6183.00
Will Dissly177.00
Tyler Lockett1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Dissly44810
Tyler Lockett44511
DK Metcalf23441
Jaron Brown24360
Rashaad Penny22310
Luke Willson11100
David Moore12101
Chris Carson1251

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.81
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.93