2019 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

17·23

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

47

Model margin

+7.6est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapRavens
  • -0.097EPA / play+0.203
  • 40.3%Success rate48.1%
  • -0.076EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.137EPA / rush+0.088
  • 8.1%Explosive rate12.0%
  • -5.27CPOE+3.13
  • 36.0%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive2.90
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–BAL
CINQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 14:48675Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 11:2834Punt7–7
BALQ1 10:081180Touchdown7–14
CINQ1 4:0142Punt7–14
BALQ1 2:50757Field goal7–17
CINQ2 14:48840Punt7–17
BALQ2 10:35746Punt7–17
CINQ2 6:19959Turnover7–17
BALQ2 2:18422Turnover7–17
CINQ2 1:25635Field goal10–17
BALQ2 0:36444End of half10–17
BALQ3 15:00618Punt10–17
CINQ3 11:441141Punt10–17
BALQ3 7:001260Field goal10–20
CINQ3 0:02421Punt10–20
BALQ4 13:321898Field goal10–23
CINQ4 3:461448Touchdown17–23
BALQ4 1:2800End of half17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/3923501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Erickson11717.00
Joe Mixon8101.30
Giovani Bernard441.00
Andy Dalton122.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Auden Tate511910
Alex Erickson46470
Joe Mixon23290
C.J. Uzomah23260
Giovani Bernard23200
Tyler Eifert22130
Tyler Boyd37100
Damion Willis0100
Drew Sample11-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/3323600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson191528.01
Mark Ingram13524.01
Gus Edwards6345.70
Justice Hill5316.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews68990
Miles Boykin23280
Seth Roberts22230
Mark Ingram22220
Willie Snead35180
Nick Boyle24180
Chris Moore23180
Patrick Ricard1160
Hayden Hurst1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.7%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.66%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.63