Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
47
Model margin
+7.6est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play+0.203
- 40.3%Success rate48.1%
- -0.076EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.137EPA / rush+0.088
- 8.1%Explosive rate12.0%
- -5.27CPOE+3.13
- 36.0%Third-down rate48.0%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.31Points / drive2.90
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/39 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auden Tate | 5 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Damion Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/33 | 236 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19 | 152 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 8 | 99 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.63