Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
47
Model margin
+5.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.059
- 41.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.049EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- -3.54CPOE+0.96
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.9%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.73Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/32 | 265 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerryon Johnson | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 5 | 9 | 121 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 58 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 283 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 14 | 104 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 5 | 65 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 3 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 4 | 5 | 32 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Darrius Shepherd | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.04