2019 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

22·23

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 43°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

47

Model margin

+5.0est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.059
  • 41.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -3.54CPOE+0.96
  • 41.4%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.12
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:00474Field goal3–0
GBQ1 12:4136Punt3–0
DETQ1 11:12874Touchdown10–0
GBQ1 6:35539Turnover10–0
DETQ1 3:301066Field goal13–0
GBQ2 13:281670Touchdown13–7
DETQ2 7:31623Punt13–7
GBQ2 4:341285Field goal13–10
DETQ2 0:0700End of half13–10
GBQ3 15:00533Field goal13–13
DETQ3 12:353-3Punt13–13
DETQ3 9:5932Field goal16–13
GBQ3 9:0136Punt16–13
DETQ3 6:33634Field goal19–13
GBQ3 3:2734Punt19–13
DETQ3 2:2956Punt19–13
GBQ3 0:24558Turnover19–13
DETQ4 13:0938Field goal22–13
GBQ4 12:17874Touchdown22–20
DETQ4 9:03616Punt22–20
GBQ4 6:461274Field goal22–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3226500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerryon Johnson13342.61
Matthew Stafford393.00
Jamal Agnew199.00
J.D. McKissic341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay591210
Marvin Hall11580
Kerryon Johnson24270
T.J. Hockenson46210
Marvin Jones25170
Jesse James1180
J.D. McKissic2370
Danny Amendola1160
Logan Thomas0100
Nick Bawden0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3928321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams141047.40
Aaron Jones11474.30
Aaron Rodgers3103.30
Marquez Valdes-Scantling199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard45651
Marcedes Lewis22500
Marquez Valdes-Scantling22480
Geronimo Allison37400
Jamaal Williams45321
Jimmy Graham25170
Jake Kumerow23170
Aaron Jones47130
Darrius Shepherd1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.04