Closing spread
LA -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.001
- 44.8%Success rate44.3%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.159
- 12.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.34CPOE-1.88
- 45.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.28Points / drive1.95
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 24/33 | 243 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 18 | 45 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 8 | 8 | 103 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 13/24 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+1.06