2019 · Week 6 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

20·7

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

LA -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

LA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.001
  • 44.8%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.159
  • 12.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.34CPOE-1.88
  • 45.8%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.95
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
SFQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:53756Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:171165Touchdown7–7
LAQ1 3:393-1Punt7–7
SFQ1 1:35975Turnover7–7
LAQ2 12:35824Punt7–7
SFQ2 8:443-1Punt7–7
LAQ2 6:37645Turnover on downs7–7
SFQ2 3:141262Missed field goal7–7
LAQ3 15:0010Turnover7–7
SFQ3 14:51417Touchdown14–7
LAQ3 12:503-5Punt14–7
SFQ3 11:161155Field goal17–7
LAQ3 4:583-7Punt17–7
SFQ3 3:411043Field goal20–7
LAQ4 12:03619Turnover on downs20–7
SFQ4 10:2033Turnover20–7
LAQ4 8:40517Turnover on downs20–7
SFQ4 7:3432Punt20–7
LAQ4 5:503-17Punt20–7
SFQ4 4:3134Punt20–7
LAQ4 3:25726Turnover on downs20–7
SFQ4 2:19312End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo24/3324301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman18452.51
Matt Breida13362.80
Raheem Mostert4133.30
Jimmy Garoppolo540.81
Deebo Samuel Sr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle881030
Dante Pettis36450
Matt Breida44270
Deebo Samuel Sr.35180
Tevin Coleman23160
Marquise Goodwin23150
Kendrick Bourne11110
Levine Toilolo1180

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff13/247800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown11403.60
Darrell Henderson6396.50
Robert Woods2168.01
Brandin Cooks2147.00
Jared Goff100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee33250
Brandin Cooks33180
Cooper Kupp46170
Gerald Everett2590
Darrell Henderson1290
Robert Woods0400
Josh Reynolds0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+1.06