Closing spread
MIN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play-0.039
- 42.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.53CPOE-3.54
- 44.0%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.73
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. DET are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/34 | 338 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 25 | 142 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 8 | 143 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 5 | 6 | 58 | 1 |
| Bisi Johnson | 4 | 8 | 40 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/45 | 364 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 11 | 105 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 10 | 13 | 93 | 4 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-1.69