2019 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

42·30

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapLions
  • +0.056EPA / play-0.039
  • 42.1%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.53CPOE-3.54
  • 44.0%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.73
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DET
DETQ1 15:00833Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:37424Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:37846Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 7:34573Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 5:141070Touchdown7–14
MINQ1 0:131054Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 12:39416Punt14–14
MINQ2 10:451597Touchdown21–14
DETQ2 3:261473Touchdown21–21
MINQ2 0:0200End of half21–21
MINQ3 15:001275Touchdown28–21
DETQ3 9:0238Punt28–21
MINQ3 7:2733Punt28–21
DETQ3 6:23660Field goal28–24
MINQ3 3:221047Missed field goal28–24
DETQ4 12:52729Turnover on downs28–24
MINQ4 8:52659Touchdown35–24
DETQ4 5:401075Touchdown35–30
MINQ4 3:05475Touchdown42–30
DETQ4 1:55423Turnover42–30
MINQ4 1:0100End of half42–30

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3433840

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook251425.72
Alexander Mattison7182.60
Kirk Cousins4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs781430
Irv Smith56600
Kyle Rudolph56581
Bisi Johnson48401
Adam Thielen12251
Dalvin Cook1270

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford30/4536441

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic5295.80
Ty Johnson10292.90
Kerryon Johnson5234.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola8111050
Marvin Jones1013934
Marvin Hall12470
T.J. Hockenson35320
J.D. McKissic23310
Ty Johnson44280
Kenny Golladay12210
Jesse James1470
Kerryon Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-1.69