Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
50
Model margin
+2.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.111
- 44.9%Success rate48.7%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.017
- 8.4%Explosive rate11.1%
- -1.01CPOE+1.10
- 45.1%Third-down rate47.2%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.01Points / drive2.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 16/26 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 4 | 69 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/27 | 239 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 5 | 106 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 6 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.14