2019 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

10·37

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

50

Model margin

+2.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.9%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.017
  • 8.4%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -1.01CPOE+1.10
  • 45.1%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00518Turnover0–0
DALQ1 13:10645Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:082-1Turnover0–7
DALQ1 9:14214Touchdown0–14
PHIQ1 8:56957Touchdown7–14
DALQ1 4:38834Punt7–14
PHIQ1 0:4639Punt7–14
DALQ2 13:321381Touchdown7–21
PHIQ2 6:40613Punt7–21
DALQ2 2:47867Field goal7–24
PHIQ2 1:313-1Punt7–24
DALQ2 0:22425Field goal7–27
DALQ3 15:0064Punt7–27
PHIQ3 10:501281Field goal10–27
DALQ3 4:591389Field goal10–30
PHIQ4 12:36314Turnover10–30
DALQ4 11:5022Turnover10–30
PHIQ4 11:0720Turnover10–30
DALQ4 10:54316Touchdown10–37
PHIQ4 9:33756Turnover on downs10–37
DALQ4 6:47425Punt10–37
PHIQ4 3:44837End of half10–37

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz16/2619111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard11504.50
Boston Scott7324.60
Miles Sanders6213.50
Carson Wentz4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert44691
Alshon Jeffery25380
Zach Ertz26380
Nelson Agholor23240
Miles Sanders33110
Jordan Howard2260
Boston Scott1150
Mack Hollins0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/2723911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott221115.01
Dak Prescott5306.01
Tony Pollard8283.50
Tavon Austin12020.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper551060
Ezekiel Elliott67360
Michael Gallup34340
Jason Witten44330
Randall Cobb23290
Blake Jarwin1111
Tavon Austin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.14