2019 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

37·18

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.064
  • 48.7%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.192EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.017EPA / rush-0.129
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.10CPOE-1.92
  • 47.2%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 62.1%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
  • 2.45Points / drive1.56
  • 1.6%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0010Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 14:4935Field goal0–3
DALQ1 13:231163Field goal3–3
NYGQ1 8:193-1Punt3–3
DALQ1 6:371038Missed field goal3–3
NYGQ1 2:091151Touchdown3–9
DALQ2 11:55644Turnover3–9
NYGQ2 9:161268Field goal3–12
DALQ2 2:50675Touchdown10–12
NYGQ2 0:5230Turnover10–12
DALQ2 0:2535Field goal13–12
NYGQ3 15:00610Punt13–12
DALQ3 10:56418Punt13–12
NYGQ3 8:28310Turnover13–12
DALQ3 7:33639Field goal16–12
NYGQ3 4:43730Field goal16–15
DALQ3 0:27960Touchdown23–15
NYGQ4 12:40465Field goal23–18
DALQ4 11:50978Touchdown30–18
NYGQ4 7:564-1Punt30–18
DALQ4 5:3849Punt30–18
NYGQ4 4:181534Opp touchdown37–18
NYGQ4 0:0600End of half37–18

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/3525731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott231396.00
Tony Pollard3217.00
Dak Prescott3124.00
Randall Cobb100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper47801
Jason Witten89580
Blake Jarwin11421
Randall Cobb68350
Michael Gallup26331
Tony Pollard1390

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones26/4121011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Jones6549.00
Saquon Barkley14282.00
Golden Tate11616.00
Evan Engram122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Saquon Barkley68670
Evan Engram68480
Golden Tate66420
Bennie Fowler36220
Rhett Ellison25170
Cody Latimer2381
Darius Slayton1460
Wayne Gallman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.2%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-1.80