Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.064
- 48.7%Success rate41.8%
- +0.192EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.129
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.10CPOE-1.92
- 47.2%Third-down rate37.8%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate69.6%
- 2.45Points / drive1.56
- 1.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/35 | 257 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 23 | 139 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 8 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 26/41 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 28 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.98
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-1.80