2016 · Week 12

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

28·7

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Scott Tolzien

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

PIT -8

Total

50

Model margin

-2.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapColts
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.045
  • 46.0%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +1.74CPOE+1.05
  • 41.9%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.24Points / drive2.10
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 12–4 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. IND are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5IND @ PIT22–34PIT
2025 · W9IND @ PIT20–27PIT
2024 · W4PIT @ IND24–27IND
2023 · W15PIT @ IND13–30IND
2022 · W12PIT @ IND24–17PIT
2020 · W16IND @ PIT24–28PIT
2019 · W9IND @ PIT24–26PIT
2017 · W10PIT @ IND20–17PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–IND
INDQ1 15:003-15Punt0–0
PITQ1 13:29752Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 9:10941Missed field goal7–0
PITQ1 4:08758Touchdown14–0
INDQ1 1:06647Touchdown14–7
PITQ2 13:02885Touchdown21–7
INDQ2 9:0035Punt21–7
PITQ2 7:2549Punt21–7
INDQ2 5:551147Turnover on downs21–7
PITQ2 1:08415End of half21–7
PITQ3 15:00837Punt21–7
INDQ3 9:491989Turnover on downs21–7
PITQ4 13:27723Punt21–7
INDQ4 9:11330Turnover21–7
PITQ4 7:51464Touchdown28–7
INDQ4 5:30729Turnover28–7
PITQ4 4:08526Punt28–7
INDQ4 1:42337End of half28–7

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger14/2022130
Landry Jones0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell231205.21
Fitzgerald Toussaint6284.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown56913
Ladarius Green23670
Eli Rogers22360
Le'Veon Bell45220
Cobi Hamilton1150
Jesse James0100
Sammie Coates0300

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Tolzien22/3620512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Todman33712.30
Frank Gore15281.90
Robert Turbin22010.00
Scott Tolzien362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton35540
Dwayne Allen56490
Donte Moncrief611451
Erik Swoope12350
Phillip Dorsett36310
Jack Doyle22250
Frank Gore1130
Chester Rogers0100
Robert Turbin23-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -83.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.15
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.11