Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
50
Model margin
-2.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.045
- 46.0%Success rate45.9%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- +1.74CPOE+1.05
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.8%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.24Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.2 points. IND are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/20 | 221 | 3 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 23 | 120 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Fitzgerald Toussaint | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 6 | 91 | 3 |
| Ladarius Green | 2 | 3 | 67 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Tolzien | 22/36 | 205 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Scott Tolzien | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 11 | 45 | 1 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-2.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.11