2019 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

18·26

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.155EPA / play-0.076
  • 37.3%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.119EPA / dropback+0.002
  • -0.216EPA / rush-0.268
  • 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +0.20CPOE-2.66
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 48.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.62
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
NYJQ1 15:001180Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:373-2Punt7–0
NYJQ1 7:561042Missed field goal7–0
MIAQ1 2:05761Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 14:48636Punt7–7
MIAQ2 11:301377Touchdown7–14
NYJQ2 6:14410Punt7–14
MIAQ2 4:37756Touchdown7–21
NYJQ2 1:51414Turnover9–21
MIAQ2 0:481-1Safety9–21
NYJQ2 0:47216Field goal12–21
MIAQ2 0:0200End of half12–21
MIAQ3 15:00839Missed field goal12–21
NYJQ3 11:42839Field goal15–21
MIAQ3 6:461143Field goal15–24
NYJQ3 1:0036Punt15–24
MIAQ3 0:04725Punt15–24
NYJQ4 11:4232Punt15–24
MIAQ4 9:24516Punt15–26
NYJQ4 6:3310Safety15–26
MIAQ4 6:2959Punt15–26
NYJQ4 2:501476Field goal18–26
MIAQ4 0:1500End of half18–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold27/3926011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell17663.90
Bilal Powell2168.00
Sam Darnold210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder89831
Le'Veon Bell89550
Ryan Griffin68500
Robbie Chosen24330
Vyncint Smith13200
Demaryius Thomas23190

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick24/3628830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Walton12292.40
Kalen Ballage7192.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki66950
Preston Williams59722
DeVante Parker46571
Jakeem Grant35330
Allen Hurns23160
Mark Walton34120
Albert Wilson1230
Kalen Ballage0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.73