Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.076
- 37.3%Success rate41.5%
- -0.119EPA / dropback+0.002
- -0.216EPA / rush-0.268
- 6.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- +0.20CPOE-2.66
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.1%
- 48.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.20Points / drive1.62
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 27/39 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 8 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/36 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Walton | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 5 | 9 | 72 | 2 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.07
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.73