2019 · Week 9 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

28·25

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.8%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.020
  • -0.061EPA / rush+0.004
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +2.34CPOE-1.81
  • 45.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.28Points / drive1.85
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00756Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 12:11312Punt0–7
ARIQ1 9:4541Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:0838Punt0–7
ARIQ1 5:3635Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:30854Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 0:045-6Punt7–7
SFQ2 12:28786Touchdown14–7
ARIQ2 8:58826Punt14–7
SFQ2 4:581490Touchdown21–7
SFQ3 15:0067Punt21–7
ARIQ3 11:42888Touchdown21–14
SFQ3 9:01775Touchdown28–14
ARIQ3 5:55512Punt28–14
SFQ3 3:27516Punt28–14
ARIQ3 1:011385Field goal28–17
SFQ4 9:24623Punt28–17
ARIQ4 5:28290Touchdown28–25
SFQ4 4:53942End of half28–25

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo28/3731740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida15785.20
Tevin Coleman12231.90
Jimmy Garoppolo320.70
Raheem Mostert1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders791121
George Kittle68791
Deebo Samuel Sr.47400
Ross Dwelley44290
Dante Pettis11211
Matt Breida22140
Tevin Coleman24130
Kendrick Bourne1171
Jeff Wilson1120

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray17/2424120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenyan Drake151107.31
Kyler Murray5346.80
Christian Kirk188.00
Alfred Morris144.00
Zach Zenner1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andy Isabella11881
Kenyan Drake44520
Larry Fitzgerald44380
KeeSean Johnson23221
Pharoh Cooper22150
Maxx Williams12120
Christian Kirk2580
Charles Clay1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.58