Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.014
- 44.8%Success rate42.7%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.020
- -0.061EPA / rush+0.004
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- +2.34CPOE-1.81
- 45.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.28Points / drive1.85
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 28/37 | 317 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 17/24 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 15 | 110 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 88 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| KeeSean Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.32
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.58