2019 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

49·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Ryan Finley

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

44

Model margin

-7.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • +0.203EPA / play-0.097
  • 48.1%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.322EPA / dropback-0.076
  • +0.088EPA / rush-0.137
  • 12.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.13CPOE-5.27
  • 48.0%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 2.90Points / drive1.31
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
BALQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
CINQ1 12:1834Punt7–0
BALQ1 11:161275Touchdown14–0
CINQ1 3:54957Field goal14–3
BALQ2 13:34780Touchdown21–3
CINQ2 9:281060Opp touchdown28–3
CINQ2 3:421065Touchdown28–10
BALQ2 0:26217End of half28–10
CINQ3 15:001044Turnover28–10
BALQ3 9:33364Touchdown35–10
CINQ3 8:0848Turnover on downs35–10
BALQ3 6:41433Touchdown42–10
CINQ3 5:1358Opp touchdown49–10
CINQ3 2:141031Turnover on downs49–10
BALQ4 13:11835Turnover49–10
CINQ4 8:111023Field goal49–13
BALQ4 2:2931Punt49–13
CINQ4 1:0927End of half49–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/1722330
Robert Griffin III3/52001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson7659.31
Mark Ingram9343.81
Gus Edwards4174.30
Justice Hill3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown44801
Nick Boyle44780
Mark Andrews68532
Hayden Hurst22200
Willie Snead23120

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Finley16/3016711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon301143.80
Ryan Finley5224.40
Alex Erickson11313.00
Giovani Bernard482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd68620
Joe Mixon23370
Auden Tate36360
Tyler Eifert24201
Stanley Morgan1490
Drew Sample1130
Giovani Bernard1100
Alex Erickson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -10.52.7%3.3%3.4%5.0%3.2%7.2%5.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

3.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

29.4%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.05
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-7.63