Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
-7.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.203EPA / play-0.097
- 48.1%Success rate40.3%
- +0.322EPA / dropback-0.076
- +0.088EPA / rush-0.137
- 12.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.13CPOE-5.27
- 48.0%Third-down rate36.0%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.90Points / drive1.31
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/17 | 223 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3/5 | 20 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 65 | 9.3 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 80 | 1 |
| Nick Boyle | 4 | 4 | 78 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 8 | 53 | 2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Finley | 16/30 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 30 | 114 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Finley | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 6 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Stanley Morgan | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
3.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
29.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-4.05
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-7.63