Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
38
Model margin
+7.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Lions
- OutDa'Shawn HandDEAnkle· DNP
- OutMiles KillebrewSConcussion· DNP
- OutTracy WalkerSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableA'Shawn RobinsonDTAnkle· Full
- QuestionableDamon HarrisonDTGroin· Limited
- QuestionableGraham GlasgowGBack· Full
- QuestionableJoe DahlGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableMatthew StaffordQBHip· Limited
- QuestionableMike DanielsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRomeo OkwaraDEGroin· DNP
- QuestionableSam MartinPAbdomen· Limited
Bears
- OutIsaiah IrvingLBQuadricep· DNP
- QuestionableEddie GoldmanDTThigh· Full
- LimitedBilal NicholsDTKnee
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.079
- 41.5%Success rate41.1%
- +0.049EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.0%
- -3.54CPOE-1.71
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.4%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.73Points / drive1.50
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 72 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 8:42 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:36 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q1 3:05 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q2 14:41 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 13:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q2 11:15 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CHI | Q2 9:02 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q2 7:34 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| CHI | Q2 4:40 | 12 | 76 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| DET | Q2 0:25 | 3 | 20 | End of half | 6–7 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 6–13 |
| DET | Q3 12:25 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| CHI | Q3 10:58 | 3 | 25 | Touchdown | 6–20 |
| DET | Q3 9:38 | 13 | 36 | Punt | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q3 3:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–20 |
| DET | Q3 1:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q4 15:00 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 6–20 |
| DET | Q4 10:42 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–20 |
| CHI | Q4 9:37 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–20 |
| DET | Q4 7:16 | 4 | 81 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| CHI | Q4 5:53 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 13–20 |
| DET | Q4 3:31 | 7 | 11 | Turnover on downs | 13–20 |
| CHI | Q4 2:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 13–20 |
| DET | Q4 1:41 | 10 | 65 | Turnover on downs | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 27/46 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 5 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 6 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 16/23 | 173 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 17 | 60 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Tarik Cohen | 4 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Ben Braunecker | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.9%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+4.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.63