Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
49
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutCortez BroughtonDTIllness· DNP
- OutJustin JonesDTShoulder· Limited
- DoubtfulGeremy DavisWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulJustin JacksonRBCalf· DNP
- DoubtfulRoderic TeamerCBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon MebaneDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDenzel PerrymanLBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableSam TeviTKnee· DNP
Raiders
- OutArden KeyDEFoot· DNP
- OutJosh MauroDEGroin· DNP
- QuestionableDwayne HarrisWRFoot· Limited
- QuestionableRodney HudsonCAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTKnee· Limited
- LimitedDaryl WorleyCBAnkle
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. OAK are 23-31-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | LAC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:51 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 8:01 | 4 | 26 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 6:02 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 2:49 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:38 | 18 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 8:24 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 6:20 | 5 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:14 | 11 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:20 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 14–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 11:33 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LV | Q3 9:57 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 7:56 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LV | Q3 6:41 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 3:56 | 5 | 80 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LV | Q3 0:25 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q4 12:07 | 16 | 65 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| LV | Q4 4:02 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 24–26 |
| LAC | Q4 1:02 | 8 | 0 | Turnover | 24–26 |
| LV | Q4 0:20 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 24–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/31 | 207 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.