Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
49
Model margin
+1.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
LAC lead 33–21 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.9 points. OAK are 22-31-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 17/31 | 207 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 7 | 30 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Patton | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.