Closing spread
IND -3
Total
41
Model margin
-0.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.127EPA / play+0.004
- 48.9%Success rate45.9%
- +0.241EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.077EPA / rush+0.023
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.60CPOE+0.24
- 48.9%Third-down rate48.8%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.29Points / drive1.82
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/23 | 303 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 8 | 183 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/33 | 183 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 24 | 136 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 11 | 16 | 108 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.62
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.65