2009 · Week 2

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

27·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Pennington

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

41

Model margin

-0.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.127EPA / play+0.004
  • 48.9%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.241EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.077EPA / rush+0.023
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.60CPOE+0.24
  • 48.9%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.82
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIA
INDQ1 15:00180Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 14:48980Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 8:42624Punt7–7
MIAQ1 5:451253Field goal7–10
INDQ2 13:21943Field goal10–10
MIAQ2 9:14920Punt10–10
INDQ2 4:4137Punt10–10
MIAQ2 3:06833Field goal10–13
INDQ2 0:43544Field goal13–13
MIAQ3 15:001144Missed field goal13–13
INDQ3 8:383-1Punt13–13
MIAQ3 7:081475Touchdown13–20
INDQ4 13:23679Touchdown20–20
MIAQ4 10:061046Field goal20–23
INDQ4 3:50480Touchdown27–23
MIAQ4 3:181252Turnover27–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning14/2330320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai6325.30
Donald Brown4266.51
Peyton Manning133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Clark781831
Pierre Garcon13481
Reggie Wayne36370
Donald Brown11240
Joseph Addai1170
Austin Collie1340
Gijon Robinson0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Pennington22/3318301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown241365.72
Ricky Williams19693.60
Patrick Cobbs22311.50
Chad Pennington144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn11161080
Davone Bess33290
Brian Hartline23230
Greg Camarillo33110
Patrick Cobbs1280
Ricky Williams1130
Anthony Fasano1210
Ronnie Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.3%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.62
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.65